Arizona's balanced attack overwhelms Houston. Tommy Lloyd wins his first title. Wildcats cut down the nets in Indianapolis for the first time since 1997.
Select any two tournament teams to see win probability and factor breakdown.
Enter your pool's scoring system and size. We'll calculate the optimal bracket to maximize your expected finish.
Compiled picks from 12 of the most respected analysts and prediction models in college basketball.
Arizona appears in every single expert's Final Four — the only team to do so. Safest FF pick in the field.
Duke is the betting favorite but experts are split — injury concerns to Ngongba and Foster limit ceiling.
Houston at +1000 is the value play. Home court at Toyota Center for South regionals is a massive edge.
Michigan is the public favorite (12% of bets) but sharps and experts are fading them after the Cason injury.
Jay Bilas went 4/4 on Final Four + champion in 2025. His 2026 pick: Arizona over Michigan State.
Model Architecture
This engine synthesizes four analytical approaches into a unified bracket optimizer, designed to maximize late-round pool scoring.
Each game uses a logistic probability model derived from KenPom efficiency differentials, weighted by seed history, momentum, experience, and injuries. The full tournament runs thousands of times to generate probability distributions.
Adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, opponent-quality-adjusted). Net margin is the strongest single predictor, explaining ~30% of game outcome variance historically.
Picks from 12 top analysts including Jay Bilas (4/4 on 2025 FF + champion), the SportsLine model (91% bracket accuracy), and senior analysts from ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and SportsBettingDime.
Conference tourney performance, injury status, coaching March pedigree, qualitative indicators. Key: Michigan lost Cason, Duke has injury concerns, Houston plays at home in South regionals, Izzo is unmatched in March.
Most pools weight later rounds heavily (1-2-4-8-16-32). Getting the F4 and Champion correct outweighs every first-round game combined.